11 February 2026 – By Renny McPherson and Arthur Karell
For decades, high-end defense technology has been defined by bespoke, exquisite, and expensive systems — low volumes at high cost. At the same time, while asymmetric attacks have always been a fact of warfare, unmanned aerial systems (UAS) attacks in Ukraine, the Middle East, and South America over the past several months have rightly led to policy changes acknowledging that as a nation we must do better on drone warfare.
We can also take those lessons on drone innovation and apply them to more sophisticated systems.
Hypersonic development is a critical example. Legacy incentive systems caused the United States to fall behind adversaries in stark fashion. Budgets for hypersonic research and development (really just research) were renewed periodically without any accountability for operational results, leading to billions of US taxpayer dollars spent on a confounding inability to produce hypersonics at scale.
Individual hypersonic vehicles cost tens of millions each. The true strategic utility of hypersonics — conceived for too many years in the US as an exquisite capability for which we might be able to manufacture one to 10 hypersonic weapons per year — will only be unlocked by embracing scale. This is a lesson we can draw directly from the rapid, decentralized, and mass-producible nature of the drone revolution.
What does that look like? Highly maneuverable, Mach 5+ hypersonic missiles are in use by our adversaries. For the US and its allies, hypersonics are not just a technological challenge. We must rethink the now dangerous “gap” that has resulted from years of legacy defense contractor failure to field operational systems. This vulnerability allows Russia and China to hold more cards when it comes to deterrence.
What if the US and its innovative private sector — the best of ‘defense tech’ — could conceptualize and execute en masse in hypersonics? It needs to happen.
To be clear, “hypersonic” is more than just speed. It is a capability defined by two characteristics:
- Extreme Speed (Mach 5+): Hypersonic munitions significantly reduce the decision-making and reaction time for defending forces.
- Non-Ballistic Trajectory and Maneuverability: Hypersonic munitions can change course mid-flight, making them unpredictable and exponentially harder to track and intercept than traditional ballistic missiles.
The critical vulnerability lies not in the airframe, but in the software and data layer. Current sensors, optimized for predictable ballistic arcs, are too slow to detect, track, and predict a maneuverable hypersonic threat. This is a failure of data processing and timely detection, not just a lack of new interceptors.
The Department of War (DoW) recognizes this threat, and we applaud the inclusion of hypersonics as one of the six critical technology areas (CTAs) named by the DOW recently. The most recent National Defense Strategy explicitly names hypersonic defense as a top priority.
This has created opportunities for defense tech companies to make a substantial impact in the near-term.
- Sensing & Tracking (The ‘See’ Problem): The need for continuous, low-latency tracking demands a new architecture.
- Focus: Space-Based Intelligence (SBIR/GEO): Small satellite constellations with novel sensor payloads (e.g., infrared, radio frequency) operating in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) provide a distributed aperture system critical for reliable detection.
- Command & Control (C2) / Data Fusion (The ‘Decide’ Problem): The time for human-in-the-loop decision-making is gone.
- Focus: Automated, AI-Driven Battle Management: Platforms leveraging edge computing/AI to rapidly ingest disparate sensor data, fuse it, and present a real-time ‘fire control solution’ to an operator, all aligned with Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) principles.
- Counter-Hypersonics (The ‘Act’ Problem): Interception is still necessary, but even this is being redefined by software.
- Focus: Novel Interceptors and Directed Energy: Startups are creating software-defined solutions for guidance and engagement, using predictive guidance algorithms and modular open systems architectures (MOSA) for rapid payload integration.
The New Calculus of Scale: Learning from the Drone Revolution
Legacy defense concepts are fundamentally incompatible with current needs for hypersonics at scale that can rebalance the deterrence framework in our favor. The old way was to perfect one platform rather than engineering a system for rapid iteration and mass production. This is a challenge that can only be solved by companies unencumbered by the procurement bureaucracy and manufacturing inertia of the past.
The breakthrough is not just in hardware, but in the software and manufacturing methodologies that enable an entirely new operational paradigm. Modern defense tech companies are building hypersonics like a software product, leveraging MOSA and agile manufacturing to drive down the per-unit cost. By abstracting the core logic and control to the software layer, they are designing airframes and propulsion systems that can be produced at scale. This shift from “hardware-first” to “software-enabled scale” is the true disruption.
One company at the forefront of this shift is Castelion. By adopting a lean, full-stack approach that integrates modern manufacturing techniques with a software-first architecture, Castelion exemplifies how a new generation of defense startups is solving the massing problem. They are treating the hypersonic missile not as a costly, one-off project, but as a product engineered for production, creating the necessary pathway for the United States and its allies to compete on a meaningful scale in the new era of high-speed deterrence.
What now?
The convergence of a critical national security vulnerability and a generational technological shift creates a uniquely compelling window for founders building in the hypersonics space. At First In, our thesis asserts that the winners in this new era will be the companies that prioritize speed, iteration, and, above all, the ability to rapidly achieve massing and scale.We specifically seek founders who possess the operator edge — deep, hard-won experience transitioning foundational technology from the lab or startup environment to the operational realities of the DoW and the intelligence community. The ability to speak the language of the end-user and navigate the procurement landscape is as crucial as the technology itself.