05 March 2026 – Investors and analysts looking for guidance or some kind of roadmap through what are deeply uncertain times could do worse than look to the recent National Security Strategy (NSS). This document, drafted by the Under Secretary of War for Policy at the Pentagon, articulates the “Why” behind a wide variety of U.S. government policies. If your thesis is that the world has entered a new era of de-globalization or realpolitik, this NSS is the most thought-through U.S. “Plan” to define and navigate this era.
It begs the question: which trends and policies described by the Plan will endure when the House is forecast to change parties and the current administration is polling at 43%. Our view is that the economic strategies laid out in the NSS represent a one-way ratchet with significant bipartisan support: reindustrialization, securing supply chains, balanced trade, and energy dominance. The policy flavor may change on the margin under Democratic control (e.g. greater emphasis on union-based manufacturing or “clean” energy), but overall, a renewed focus on American economic power is here to stay.
It’s with this framing in mind that we are announcing the oversubscribed final close of First In Ventures Fund 3 Small Business Investment Company Critical Technologies LP, a $148 million vehicle in partnership with the Small Business Administration and Office of Strategic Capital. First In has been managing investments that empower entrepreneurs who are securing our freedom since 2020, and while we do not often publicize our work by design, this new Fund builds on two decades of operator, analyst, and strategist engagement with a complex and dangerous world.
Our thesis that systemic security investments belong in a diversified portfolio is being borne out not by its current popularity among the chattering class, but by the courage, resourcefulness, technical brilliance, and straight-up guts of our portfolio founders and teams. As a result, First In has a top decile venture track record and a new seed-stage-focused Fund 3 to continue the mission.
We invest in the very best teams building solutions for strategic security problems. In a world where our adversaries follow doctrines of unrestricted warfare, both government and commercial enterprises are often on the front line of security threats faced by our society. This acute risk is why we see opportunities for security technology founders to build value. In fact, a lack of industrial, energy, and production capacity itself is a security demand signal.
One prime example is in the capital expenditure for AI compute. Hyperscalers are planning to spend over $650 billion to enable AI training and inference; and unless one thinks we are going to revert to a pre-AI world, that number will only grow. For comparison, that amount is more than was spent on the interstate highway system and across two Apollo programs. Who is going to secure networks, supply chains, and infrastructure for all that? You? You Lieutenant Weinberg?
We are immensely grateful to step off on this next stage of First In with the best advisor team in the business. Ish Boyle, Brian Schmanske, Brian O’Keefe, Bud Watts, Maggie Engler and Bobby Tuohy have not only become friends but also startup battle buddies, sharing in the highs and lows of our portfolio companies and, as consummate professionals, being able to carry real load for those teams when asked.
We are also thankful to be partnered with the dedicated teams at the SBA and OSC whose tireless efforts have built the SBIC Critical Technologies program across administrations. Describing the strategic “How” in the Plan for this new global era, the NSS states, “The future belongs to makers. The United States will reindustrialize its economy, ‘re-shore’ industrial production, and encourage and attract investment… with a focus on the critical and emerging technology sectors that will define the future.” We’ve been First In and we’re here the duration.